Neodymium Market Brief

1. 15 days to 10 November: what is confirmed and what is not

The suspension of China's expanded rare earth export controls of October 2025 runs to 10 November 2026, which is 15 days after the date of this brief [3]. Three reports bear on whether it will be extended, and they do not fully agree. RAWMATERIALS.net reported on 28 September that China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed its trade arrangements with the United States now run until 10 January 2027, but that the statement did not explicitly mention rare earths [1]. Rinnovabili reported on 25 September that the restrictions "remain suspended for another two months" after the Trump–Xi summit, based on press reporting rather than an official text [2]. FXStreet, in an analysis dated 14 October, reported no extension of the suspension itself and said the Ministry's statement does not clearly cover it [3].

In short: the US–China trade truce is reported to run to 10 January 2027, but we have not found a Chinese official text that extends the rare earth suspension. Issue 2 did not mention the truce extension; it matters, so we include it here. The April 2025 licensing regime for samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium was never suspended and stays in force [2]. Our sources are press and analyst reports. Legal questions should be checked against the official notices.

2. September: magnet exports reach a 2026 high

China's customs data for September were released on 20 October. SMM, processing those data, reports exports of rare earth permanent magnets of 6,165.12 tonnes and calls it a new single-month high for the year [4][5]. The South China Morning Post reports the EU figure [6].

SMM attributes the jump mainly to orders held at ports in July and August under tighter licensing being cleared in September, and to China–US talks shortening clearance times. It describes this as a procedural unblocking, not a loosening of controls [4]. SMM forecasts about 5,700 tonnes a month for the fourth quarter; that is a forecast, not a reported figure [4]. The text of the South China Morning Post article that we could read gives no tonnage for the US.

Do not compare these numbers with issue 2: the 4,269.8-tonne figure there was China's total rare earth exports, all products. The 6,165-tonne figure is magnets only.

3. EU and China: willingness, but no numbers

On 15 October a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, He Yadong, said China is willing to keep speeding up approvals of rare earth export licences for the EU and hopes the EU will reciprocate by facilitating key dual-use licence cases involving Chinese entities. The two sides would use the export control dialogue mechanism [7]. The statement gives no volumes, timelines or binding commitments [7]. SMM ties its fourth-quarter outlook to commitments from the EU–China Trade and Investment Council meeting of 8–9 October [4]; we did not read the text of those commitments.

A separate customs point for EU buyers: Regulation (EU) 2026/1465, applying from 1 July 2026, lists three zero-duty quotas for permanent-magnet blanks in narrow size windows. They are not new; the same lines were already in the regulation applying from 1 January 2026. Our article EU zero-duty magnet quotas: what they cover and what they don't goes through the details [10].

4. NdPr, dysprosium and terbium oxide prices

NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) oxide is the main raw material of NdFeB magnets. SMM's weekly review of 22 October reports the following:

SMM attributes the NdPr decline to a pullback in futures, larger price concessions from suppliers and metal plants buying only just in time [8]. Its daily review of 20 October reported a fall of 2,000 yuan per tonne and said NdPr may keep consolidating weakly in the short term, depending on the pace of downstream orders [9]. On these SMM figures, dysprosium oxide costs about 1.9 times and terbium oxide about 8.7 times as much per tonne as NdPr oxide (our arithmetic, from the midpoints).

These are oxide prices on one source's basis, not magnet prices: a finished magnet also carries processing, coating, yield loss and freight. Issue 1 quoted a range of 729.8–749.8 yuan per kg (729,800–749,800 per tonne) for 9 October from a different source; the figures should not be read as one series.

5. What it means for magnet buyers

This section is our own reading of the facts above, not a forecast.

• Treat 10 November as a planning date, not a prediction. The reports conflict, and we have not found a Chinese official text on the rare earth suspension. A confirmed truce to 10 January 2027 is not the same thing.
• Do not read the September record as a loosening. SMM itself calls it a clearing of backlogged orders. Keep your usual lead-time buffer.
• High-temperature grades remain the most exposed. Dysprosium and terbium stay on the April 2025 licence list whatever happens on 10 November [2], and their oxide prices are many times that of NdPr oxide [8]. Ask for the licence route in writing: a general licence or a licence per order, and how many months are planned. Our export licence guide explains the process.
• Plan the order, not the price. If you will need a high-temperature grade in the next months, send the quantity and delivery date early so we can confirm availability in writing, and ask for the validity date of every quotation.

References

1. [1]  RAWMATERIALS.net. (2026, September 28). Rare earth export controls: China confirms extension of trade arrangements with U.S. https://rawmaterials.net/rare-earth-export-controls-china-confirms-extension-of-trade-arrangements-with-u-s/
2. [2]  Rinnovabili. (2026, September 25). Trump-Xi summit: China's rare earth export restrictions remain suspended, for now. [Press reporting; it does not include the official text.] https://www.rinnovabili.net/policy-and-affairs/environmental-policies/chinese-rare-earth-exports-trump-xi-truce/
3. [3]  FXStreet. (2026, October 14). China's rare earth leverage has an expiration date: November 10. Here's what Beijing is deciding. [Analysis piece; it cites no official Chinese notice on the 10 November date.] https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chinas-rare-earth-leverage-has-an-expiration-date-november-10-heres-what-beijing-is-deciding-202610141348
4. [4]  Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). (2026, October 20). China's rare earth magnet exports hit record in September, driven by backlog release and regulatory easing. [SMM analysis of customs data.] https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104168847-chinas-rare-earth-magnet-exports-hit-record-in-september-driven-by-backlog-release-and-regulatory-easingsmm-analysis
5. [5]  Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). (2026, October 20). China's rare earth magnet exports hit 2026 high, up 23% MoM and 6.7% YoY amid trade progress. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104167093-chinas-rare-earth-magnet-exports-hit-2026-high-up-23-mom-and-67-yoy-amid-trade-progress
6. [6]  South China Morning Post. (2026, October 20 customs release). China's rare earth magnet exports to EU and US rebound in September. https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3371522/chinas-rare-earth-magnet-exports-eu-and-us-rebound-september
7. [7]  Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). (2026, October 16). China open to facilitating rare earth exports to EU, seeks reciprocity on dual-use licenses. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104160501-china-open-to-facilitating-rare-earth-exports-to-eu-seeks-reciprocity-on-dual-use-licenses
8. [8]  Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). (2026, October 22). Pr-Nd downtrend center shifts lower; gadolinium falls while holmium rises, showing divergent trends [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104173672-pr-nd-downtrend-center-shifts-lower-gadolinium-falls-while-holmium-rises-showing-divergent-trends-smm-rare-earth-weekly-review
9. [9]  Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). (2026, October 20). Rare earth prices show mixed performance; Pr-Nd under pressure, holmium series rise [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104168554-rare-earth-prices-show-mixed-performance-pr-nd-under-pressure-holmium-series-rise-smm-rare-earth-daily-review
10. [10]  Council of the European Union. (2026, June 25). Council Regulation (EU) 2026/1465 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/2283 on autonomous tariff quotas. Official Journal L, 30.6.2026. http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2026/1465/oj

Important notice: This brief is general information compiled from the public sources cited, as of 26 October 2026. It is not a price quotation, an offer, legal or investment advice or a guarantee of supply. It does not bind Rami Technics. Prices and regulations change; confirm current terms with us and with the official sources before you decide.

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