Neodymium Market Brief

1. 22 days to 10 November: what has and has not changed

China's expanded export controls of 9 October 2025 are suspended until 10 November 2026, which is 22 days from the date of this brief [1][2]. Since issue 1 we have found no official confirmation of an extension. Tech Times reported on 6 October that no formal extension had been announced, and a second site said the same as of 12 October [1][2]. Both name the same three possible outcomes: an extension, a selective reinstatement of controls, or a full reimposition [1][2].

The April 2025 licensing regime for samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium was never suspended and remains in force [1][2]. Our sources are press and analyst reports, not the Ministry of Commerce text. Legal questions should be checked against the official notices.

2. Europe: a preliminary EU–China understanding

MiningSEE reported on 12 October that a European Commissioner and China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reached a preliminary understanding in Beijing meant to ease exports of rare earths and permanent magnets to European customers. Automotive, wind energy, electronics and defence manufacturers are named as sectors [3]. China indicated that it would keep facilitating export-licence approvals [3]. The same report states that China's export-control regime remains in place and that the understanding contains no binding volumes, no guaranteed approval times and no long-term delivery commitments [3]. We could read only this one report in full, so details may be added or corrected by official statements.

Rare Earth Mining reports that since December 2025 some large Chinese magnet makers have held year-long general licences for pre-cleared civilian customers, with defence and aerospace end users excluded [2]. We could not verify this against an official text. If you buy from a Chinese supplier, ask them to confirm their licence status in writing.

3. China's September customs figures

China's customs data for September were reported on 16 October:

The first four rows are customs totals for rare earths as a category. They do not show magnet volumes, and they do not show which shipments needed a licence. The magnet row covers exports to the US only and refers to August. Detailed September magnet data was not yet available in the sources we reviewed.

4. NdPr oxide prices

NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) oxide is the main raw material of NdFeB magnets. Latest price point we could verify:

Issue 1 gave a Chinese domestic range of ¥729.8–749.8 per kg for 9 October. The two figures come from different sources, dates and price bases and should not be read as one series. These are oxide prices, not magnet prices: a finished magnet also carries processing, coating and logistics costs. The $110 per kg floor is part of US Department of Defense agreements with MP Materials and Lynas and applies to those producers, not to buyers. This brief does not forecast prices.

5. What it means for magnet buyers

This section is our own reading of the facts above, not a forecast.

• Treat 10 November as a planning date, not a prediction. No outcome is confirmed, and the preliminary EU–China understanding does not commit China to volumes or timelines.
• High-temperature grades remain the most exposed. Dysprosium and terbium are on the April 2025 licence list, which is in force whatever happens on 10 November [1][2].
• For Dy/Tb grades, ask for the licence route in writing. Ask whether the supplier holds a general licence or needs a licence for each order, and how many months it plans for. Our export licence guide explains the process.
• Plan the order, not the price. If you will need a high-temperature grade in the next months, send the quantity and delivery date early so we can confirm availability in writing, and ask for the validity date of every quotation.

References

1. [1]  Cook, R. (2026, October 6). Congress moves to break China rare earth grip before November deadline. Tech Times. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328654/20261006/congress-moves-break-china-rare-earth-grip-before-november-deadline.htm
2. [2]  Rare Earth Mining. (2026, October 12). Rare earth export pause: 10 Nov deadline and key outcomes. [Secondary news site; it cites other sources.] https://rare-earth-mining.com/rare-earth-export-pause-expiry-november-2026/
3. [3]  MiningSEE. (2026, October 12). EU-China rare-earth understanding offers Europe relief but preserves supply dependence. https://www.miningsee.eu/eu-china-rare-earth-understanding-offers-europe-relief-but-preserves-supply-dependence/
4. [4]  Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). (2026, October 16). China's rare earth exports up 6.7% in Sept, imports down slightly year-on-year. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104162343-chinas-rare-earth-exports-up-67-in-sept-imports-down-slightly-year-on-year
5. [5]  The Oregon Group. (2026, September 21). China's rare-earth magnet exports to US fall 21% before Trump-Xi summit. https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/rare-earths/chinas-rare-earth-magnet-exports-to-us-fall-21-before-trump-xi-summit/
6. [6]  Critical Minerals News. (2026, October 4, page update). Rare earths price: NdPr spot price, history and forecast. [Price tracker showing the SMM benchmark of 30 September 2026.] https://critical-minerals-news.com/rare-earths-price/

Important notice: This brief is general information compiled from the public sources cited, as of 19 October 2026. It is not a price quotation, an offer, legal or investment advice or a guarantee of supply. It does not bind Rami Technics. Prices and regulations change; confirm current terms with us and with the official sources before you decide.

Source policy: This brief is compiled from publicly available sources and written in our own words. Every piece of information is attributed to its source and date. We do not copy articles, images or paid content. If you are a rights holder and want a reference changed or removed, write to solution@ramitechnics.com.