Neodymium Market Brief
Issue 1 · 12 October 2026
A short, sourced summary of what is happening in the neodymium and rare earth supply chain, and what it means for people who buy magnets. Every figure below names its source and date.
1. The date to watch: 10 November 2026
China's expanded rare earth export controls, announced on 9 October 2025, are suspended until 10 November 2026 [1][2]. That is 29 days from the date of this brief. Mining Technology lists three possible outcomes before the deadline: the suspension is extended, controls are reinstated selectively, or the October 2025 measures are fully reimposed [1]. At the time of writing no outcome has been confirmed in the sources we reviewed.
2. Where China's export controls stand
The reported position, by measure:
| Measure | Status as reported | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Expanded controls of 9 October 2025 (more elements, extraterritorial provisions) | Suspended until 10 November 2026 | [1][2] |
| Controls of April 2025: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium, including their metals, oxides, alloys, compounds and permanent magnet materials | In force. Exports need a case-by-case licence. Never suspended | [1][2] |
| US–China trade arrangements | China's Ministry of Commerce said on 28 September 2026 they are extended until 10 January 2027. The statement did not explicitly mention rare earths, so the status of the rare earth suspension was not confirmed by it | [3] |
3. NdPr oxide prices
NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) oxide is the main raw material of NdFeB magnets. Reported price points:
| Date | Market | Reported price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 October 2026 | China | ¥729.8–749.8 per kg, reported as rising | [5] |
| 6–20 August 2026 | China (PrNd oxide) | RMB 721,500 per tonne (about $107,504), down 3.5% over the period | [4] |
| 6–20 August 2026 | Outside China, CIF Europe and North America | $95,000 per tonne (about $95 per kg), down 7.3% over the period | [4] |
The two Chinese figures are from different dates and sources and should not be read as one series. These are oxide prices, not magnet prices: a finished magnet also carries processing, coating and logistics costs. Benchmark notes a $110 per kg price floor in US Department of Defense agreements with MP Materials and Lynas, which applies to those producers, not to buyers [4]. This brief does not forecast prices.
4. Supply concentration
Tech Times, citing industry figures, puts China at about 69% of global rare earth mine production, up to 91% of refining and separation capacity (attributed to the IEA) and 94% of sintered permanent magnet production [2]. Mining Technology gives a similar picture, with China processing “up to 90%” of rare earths [1]. The practical meaning: policy decisions in one country can affect lead times for magnets made anywhere.
5. What it means for magnet buyers
This section is our own reading of the facts above, not a forecast.
- High-temperature grades are the most exposed. Dysprosium and terbium are added to NdFeB to raise coercivity, which is what the H, SH, UH, EH and AH grades rely on [6]. Both elements are on the April 2025 licence list [1]. Standard grades (N, M) depend mostly on neodymium and praseodymium.
- Plan the order, not the price. If you will need a high-temperature grade in the next months, send the quantity and delivery date early so we can confirm availability in writing.
- Ask for the validity of any quotation. Raw material news can change offers quickly. A quote with a stated validity date protects both sides.
- Check whether you really need the highest grade. Our selection guide explains how temperature, shape and coating decide the grade. Sometimes a different shape or coating lets you use a more common grade.
References
- [1] Gonzalez, A. (2026, April 27). China rare earth export pause nears expiry amid persistent supply concentration. Mining Technology (republished by Yahoo Finance). https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/china-rare-earth-export-pause-123614106.html
- [2] Cook, R. (2026, October 6). Congress moves to break China rare earth grip before November deadline. Tech Times. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328654/20261006/congress-moves-break-china-rare-earth-grip-before-november-deadline.htm
- [3] RAWMATERIALS.net. (2026, September 28). Rare earth export controls: China confirms extension of trade arrangements with U.S. https://rawmaterials.net/rare-earth-export-controls-china-confirms-extension-of-trade-arrangements-with-u-s/
- [4] Ingall, G. (2026, August 21). Ex-China NdPr prices slip below $110/kg price floor on oversupply. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/ex-china-ndpr-prices-slip-below-110-kg-price-floor-as-oversupply-builds
- [5] Rare Earth Exchanges. (2026, October 9). China rare earth price index: NdPr, terbium. [Public summary of a members-only article]. https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/china-rare-earth-price-index-ndpr-terbium/
- [6] Coey, J. M. D. (2010). Magnetism and magnetic materials. Cambridge University Press.
Important notice: This brief is general information compiled from the public sources cited, as of 12 October 2026. It is not a price quotation, an offer, legal or investment advice or a guarantee of supply. It does not bind Rami Technics. Prices and regulations change; confirm current terms with us and with the official sources before you decide.
Source policy: This brief is compiled from publicly available sources and written in our own words. Every piece of information is attributed to its source and date. We do not copy articles, images or paid content. If you are a rights holder and want a reference changed or removed, write to solution@ramitechnics.com.